USD INDEX
The index strengthened over the week with several factors contributing. Safe haven demand from US/Iran/Middle East conflict; oil prices surged; strong US economic data; euro and yen weakness. Technically, current resistance has held strong since May 2025. RSI at 61 leaves room for further upside moves. Buyers continue to guard the 100.00-100.50 support area. Resistance at 101.36 with support at 100.46.
S&P 500
The index weakened for the 2nd consecutive week with big tech and semi-conductor stocks sold off aggressively. Alphabet and Tesla earnings results weighed heavily on sentiment. High interest rate expectations, middle east tensions, and new tariff concerns, all contributing to global growth worries. Also we see the typical inverse relationship between strong USD and weak equities. 7400 continues to be protected by buyers. Resistance at 7565 with support at 7411.
GOLD
The metal traded relatively flat last week as 2 major forces cancelled each other out. Geopolitical crises in the middle east increasing demand for the metal’s safe haven status as well as a weakening and volatile stock market = bullish gold. At the same time a strong USD, treasury yields moving higher and oil prices surging = inflation concerns = bearish Fed outlook = bearish gold. Note buyers continue to protect the $4000 support area, while looking up to retake $4200.
BRENT OIL
The forward looking oil market continued its bullish run higher based on the probability of near-term supply disruptions resulting from the middle east war. A new/added dimension which saw the Houthis’ threat to the Red sea route, resulted in Brent reaching the pivotal and psychological $100 mark. Noteworthy how the rise in oil prices was the key driver linking the week’s movement across currencies, bonds, gold and equities.
BITCOIN
The cryptocurrency traded in a relatively narrow range. There was no real trend compared to moves in the USD, equities and oil. The doji-like candlestick confirms the lack of direction. Spot ETF inflows (institutional buying) continue to keep prices above the $60K floor. BTC does not appear to confirm to typical risk-on or risk-off environments, suggesting the market is looking for another catalyst before committing to a new direction. Support at $63.3K with resistance at $66.7K.
