USD INDEX
A strong week saw buyers once again looking up at the 100.00 mark. Friday’s strong job report (NFP) confirmed the uptrend. Not only does a Fed rate cut now seem unlikely, but it appears rates may well stay high for longer with talk of a hike now entering the picture. Rising bond yields contributed. Add the geopolitical concern as US/Iran no closer to an agreement, with little demand for gold’s safe-haven status?all adding up to the global reserve currency’s rally. It’s also worth noting the other majors are all weakening in their own right. Note the relevance of current resistance - support level in October 2024 and guarded by sellers throughout 2025/6. Support at 98.89 with resistance at 99.81.
S&P 500
Friday’s sharp sell-off did not come out of nowhere, certainly not from a technical perspective. Following a series of record highs, sellers got held up during the week with a double-top (reversal sign), a sharp gap lower, and then the strong jobs report confirming the risk-off theme. The bearish engulfing candlestick adding to the technical picture. While a bout of profit-taking is not surprising, it’s now a matter of checking whether this is a natural retracement/pullback, or if a deeper correction is underway. Resistance at 7630 with support at 7368.
GOLD
The traditional inverse relationship playing out: strong USD and higher yields = weak gold. Bear in mind the metal’s historic run-up which started well over a year ago, it’s not surprising that investors have locked in profits and seem content to stay away, for now. While the commodity’s safe-haven status is not questioned, it does appear that investors recognize that timing does not favour buyers while the current conditions play out. Technically note the triangle pattern form last week has seen the bottom now broken as sellers aim below $4300. Resistance at $4545 with support at $4307.
BRENT OIL
A nervous oil market saw sellers win out for the 3rd consecutive week. The market seems to have the view that a worst-case scenario has not developed and apparently no news is good news. The forward looking market appears to remain optimistic that a settlement will be reached and supply concerns will be remedied. For now price activity between $90 and $100 supports this view. Should renewed military action and/or a total breakdown in negotiations re-appear, price activity will look above the $100 mark. Resistance at $99.05 with support at $92.48.
BITCOIN
The cryptocurrency moved together with the same macro forces which saw equities and gold forced lower, with the additional factor of high leveraging adding to the sharp sell-off. Technically we had a double-top (bearish sign) 4 weeks ago which confirmed a 3rd lower high since the record high $126K from September 2025. Buyers will look to protect the $60K support area going forward, while buyers look up to the $80K mark in an attempt to reverse the strong downtrend. Resistance at $73.7K with support at $59K.
