USD INDEX
Although buyers did step in late in the week, the sell-off in USD continued for a 3rd straight week with lower highs and lower lows confirming the downtrend. Interestingly the factors which drove investors to buy USD at the start of the middle east conflict (safe asset and liquidity) do not appear to be the priority as rate cuts, and a global slowdown now dominate the conversation. Resistance at 98.93 with support at 97.41.
S&P 500
While the USD has dropped for 3 consecutive weeks, the traditional inverse relationship between weak USD and strong equities has played out in convincing fashion with 3 solid green weekly candlesticks on the chart. Last week saw the S&P trading at record highs, with the previous 7000 resistance level convincingly broken to the upside. Overbought technicals and profit taking may enter the picture going into the new week. Resistance at 7180 with support at 6777.
GOLD
Gold strengthened for the 3rd consecutive week, although noticeably, the rally does lack real conviction. Notwithstanding a 3rd consecutive higher high and higher low on the charts, the downtrend remains intact. Next upside target sits at $4900. Sellers have not stepped in and while demand has been limited, the gains made through the week have held. The metals safe haven status is not questioned, but has taken a back seat to stock market optimism for now. Resistance at $4899 with support at $4663.
BRENT OIL
Oil prices dropped significantly lower for a 2nd consecutive week as the current ceasefire and prospect of a peace settlement in the middle east continues to be the main driver of lower prices. The straits are closed and the ceasefire ends in 3 days?all contributing to a fragile market going into the new week. Price levels do not seem to be particularly relevant for now with prices trading within more of a big picture setting. The $100 level looks to be set up as the divider - optimistic best-case scenarios contain prices below the whole number; renewed military activity, hostile rhetoric and potential worst-case scenarios should see prices spike above the $100 dividing line. Resistance at $103.55 with support at $86.04.
BITCOIN
A 3rd consecutive upweek with higher highs and higher lows, a 3rd weekly green candlestick, all contributing to an uptrend picking up momentum. Price action maintaining above the $70K -$72K adds to the bullish feel. Note current resistance matches support from a year ago - March/April 2025. Buyers will see $80K as the next upside target. Resistance at $78.5K with support at $70.4K.
