USD INDEX
A strong reversal saw USD sold off across the board with the index recording it’s lowest close since the start of the middle east conflict 6 weeks ago (Feb 27th 2026). Initially the conflict saw a run to USD safety (safe haven and liquidity), however last week’s proposed peace settlement saw the theme revert from risk-off to risk-on. Equity markets have rallied. The weekend talks in Pakistan were not successful and market reaction will signal investor’s reaction at the start of the new trading week. Technically we saw the 100.00 resistance mark held strong. Sellers will look below 98.00. Resistance at 100.12 with support at 98.28.
S&P 500
A 2nd consecutive upweek saw the index add to the previous week’s gains with the highest close since the start of the war. The current risk-on play has seen a demand for US stocks, confirming the inverse relationship between weak USD and strong equities. Note earning season kicks off next week adding liquidity = strong trends. The first signs of the stock market’s reaction to the failed peace talks over the weekend will be reflected in the Futures market going into the Asian session. Resistance at 6882 with support at 6566.
GOLD
Gold continues to show resilience with another week of gains and a 3rd consecutive higher high and higher low on the chart. On the upside buyers aim to re-take $4800 while sellers will look to test $4700 on the downside. Note the fib retracement from $5426 high down to $4037 low - buyers are currently held up at the 50% retracement level at $4750 going into the new week. Resistance at $4859 with support at $4598.
BRENT OIL
The sharp sell-off last week from $112 down to $90 ($20+) was the markets initial response the peace plan - ceasefire and straits opened - being announced. The talks are over and neither party has achieved success with the ceasefire fragile, conflict continuing, and the straits not open. The oil market’s response will be reflected as the new week’s trading (Asian session) gets underway later today. Fundamentals - straits closed and US talking of setting a blockade in place - could see prices bounce up to trade over the significant $100 mark. The initial and real first outcome of this middle east war is that the safety of international waters and free passage relating to the gulf region looks to be severely threatened. Longer term/futures trading could well reflect this in pricing going forward. Resistance at $112.02 with support at $90.36.
BITCOIN
A familiar pattern sees buyers winning out within an established range, prices closing higher and the uptrend continues. However, once again buyers were held up over $70K. Sellers may see the weekly high as a lower high on the chart. Sellers will aim below $70K as a first step to reversing the trend. Resistance at $74K with support at $67.5K.
