USD INDEX
4 weeks of building a steady uptrend were reversed as the USD sold off sharply against the majors and the downtrend reflected in the USDX chart confirming the turnaround. From resistance at 100.74, sellers maintained control with supply clearly outperforming limited demand on the buyers end. Support sits at 98.92. Trumps new tariffs aimed at the European Union contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the USD. Adding to the downward bias is the state of America’s future safe-haven status - yields, assets, currency?all being questioned.
S&P 500
After buyers briefly broke higher and established resistance at 5996, sellers took control and went on to set support at 5755. Notwithstanding the push lower, the candlestick shows a higher high and higher low on the weekly charts with the uptrend intact. Note the equity index moved in the same direction (lower) as the USDX. Buyers will aim to break above the 6000 level while sellers look below 5700 to reverse the trend.
GOLD
A strong week for the metal produced a record high close at $3357 with resistance slightly higher at $3365. The inverse relationship between a weak USD and strong gold was highlighted. All contributing factors lined up with the technical uptrend adding to the fundamentals - uncertainty surrounding the USD and equity markets as well as unsettled geopolitical conflicts all confirming demand for gold’s safe haven status. Note the oversold RSI above 71 and the probability of profit-taking should be considered as buyers look up to $3500. Sellers will look below $3300 as the first step in beginning any meaningful retracement.
BRENT OIL
Although buyers did fight back on Friday, sellers won out with the charts reflecting a lower high and lower low adding to the downtrend. Resistance was set at $65.95 with support at $62.82. The overall trend and bias point downward with conflicting factors influencing the bearish feel - ongoing geopolitical conflicts looking no closer to being settled, no long term trade deals, supply concerns unclear, potential global economic slowdown?all weighing on price activity. Buyers aim above $66 while sellers look below $65.
BITCOIN
Buyers added to the uptrend with a 7th consecutive green candlestick, a higher high and a higher low, with a new record resistance established at $111.8K. The positive sentiment surrounding cryptos and bitcoin has been reflected in buyers stepping in following natural daily retracements and expected bouts of profit-taking. As buyers aim beyond $112K on the upside, note that the lack of previous relevant levels could make for sharp and extended moves. Support sits at $102.1K, the area where sellers will target in any attempt to reverse the trend.
