Market Highlights
1 - US stock markets close down on the day. S&P -1.62%, DJ -1.87%, NASDAQ -1.98%
2 - European indices mixed. DAX biggest loser -0.97%, FTSE strongest +0.27%
3 - Gold breaks March lows -$146 at $4074; Bitcoin unchanged at $61.8K
4 - Brent remains optimistic with modest $1.54 gain at $94.08
5 - USD softer following CPI data, stabilizing late. EUR leads, AUD lags
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX A familiar pattern saw a weak start, followed by a bounce back following CPI data which reflected inflation remaining relatively high, which adds to the Fed leaning towards higher rates for longer. Ongoing Middle East tensions add to the USD’s safe haven status. Uptrend remains intact with the 100.00 mark again being targeted. Resistance at 99.76 with support at 99.42.
S&P 500 Today’s sell-off had two main contributors: elevated inflation/ CPI data taking rate cuts off the table for now, and the correction within the tech sector (particularly AI stocks) continues. Strong 10yr yields add to the push lower. Note the current support area which buyers have managed to protect so far. Resistance at 7468 with support at 7340.
GOLD Gold’s sharp decline today caught most off guard - noticeably as it is in spite of the geopolitical tension in the middle east looking decidedly fragile. It appears traders are more concerned with Fed policy (hawkish), bond yields strength (10yr leading), USD resilience and technical breakdowns on the chart. Note sellers testing the low from March 23rd. Buyers will look up to the $4200 as a minimum to initiate a reversal. Resistance at $4226 with support at $4081.
BRENT OIL Price activity continues to hover around the low $90’s range with daily headlines apparently of little relevance. The forward-looking oil market looks to have priced in this best-case scenario and does not anticipate an immediate supply shock. Further it reflects there is confidence that the straits will open and shipping will resume. Plus, the theme of slowing global growth is anticipated to weigh on demand. No news is good news = $90 area; physical escalation = $100+. Resistance at $94.61 with support at $90.64.
BITCOIN The cryptocurrency is going nowhere. Neither buyers nor sellers holding on to intraday moves. Price activity remains confined to a narrow $2K range. A doji-like candlestick confirms the lack of direction. No response to USD and oil’s resilience, unaffected by stocks and gold being sold off - it feels that this quiet asset is waiting for it’s own trigger. Buyers continue to protect the $60K support while sellers guard $64K on the upside. Resistance at $62.8K with support at $60.6K.
FX Pivot Levels
