Market Highlights
1 - US stock markets close mixed following late rally in response to ceasefire proposal. S&P +0.08%, DJ -0.18%, NASDAQ +0.10%
2 - Gold adds $46 to close $4704; Bitcoin up $900 and ready to re-test $70K resistance
3 - Brent oil drastic $8 sell-off with ceasefire proposal on the table
4 - USD down across the board. USDX -0.35%, EUR +0.50%, GBP +0.46%, AUD +0.92%
5 - European indices down on the day. DAX -1.0%, FTSE -0.8%, IBEX -0.64%
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX The USD was sold off steadily today, and then a sharp drop at 4.00pm EST following a new offer by the mediator, Pakistan for a 2-week ceasefire - this coming just hours before Trump’s threat to “destroy” Iran by 8pm EST if Iran does not open the straits of Hormuz. Downtrend gains momentum with a lower high and lower low on the chart. The hope of a peaceful settlement flips the risk-off to risk-on; USD safety/liquidity to equity markets. The precarious situation continues at the time of writing. Resistance at 100.00 with support at 99.41.
S&P 500 What looked like a down day for US equities was reversed in the last hour of trading with the new 2-week ceasefire plan sparking a late rally. From risk off to risk on before the proposal has even been accepted at time of writing (4.45 pm EST). The uptrend gained momentum, with 6700 the next upside target. Futures market will react to continuing negotiations. Resistance at 6666 with support at 6570.
GOLD The safe haven commodity added to yesterday’s gains through the day, with a push higher late in the day. The ceasefire proposal which saw the USD sold off, added to the metal’s rally. Next upside target sits at $4800. Gold’s resilience since the strong sell-off (end March 2026) has seen buyers confirm demand for the metal since the start of the month. Resistance at $4725 with support at $4607.
BRENT OIL As expected, oil was the standout mover following the ceasefire proposal late in the US session. Oil moves sharply in anticipation of new developments - be it a best case or worst case scenario/outcome. Pakistan’s proposal for a 2-week ceasefire and the straits of Hormuz to be opened by Iran was met with an immediate $5 sell-off (at time of writing 4.45 pm EST). Markets now wait for both the US and Iran to respond prior to Trump’s original 8.00pm EST deadline. Resistance at $111.75 with support at $105.02.
BITCOIN Buyers won out today with a slight gain. The move higher added to the uptrend, yet price activity remains contained within the familiar range between $68K and $70K. Note the range has stepped up from the recent $65K - $68K levels - bullish sign. Buyers will aim to test above the $70K mark which has been successfully protected by sellers over the past 2 weeks. Resistance at $69.8K with support at $67.6K.
FX Pivot Levels
