Market Highlights
1 - US indices erase declines with strong close going into Easter weekend. S&P +0.11%, DJ +0.13%, NASDAQ +0.18%
2 - Brent spikes as re-pricing signals extended supply concerns. Gains $9 to close $108.80
3 - European stock markets end with mixed results. DAX +0.31%, FTSE +0.44%, IBEX -0.38%
4 - Bitcoin moves sideways within tight range at $66.9K; Gold down $107 at $4675
5 - USD strengthens against majors. EUR -0.44% at 1.1539, GBP -0.59% at 1.3223, JPY +0.57% at 159.60, CAD +0.33% at 1.3918
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX The risk on theme which saw USD selling in the hope of a settlement/ceasefire in the middle east lasted 2 days. Trump again reignited the temperature with his aggressive threats, and the flight back to USD safety/liquidity resumed. Buyers controlled activity with a strong rally, going on to reach the 100.00 level following the Asian and European sessions. Notwithstanding a retracement early in the US session, buyers stepped in to close the day on the front foot. Note tomorrow being Good Friday equity markets will be closed, however the non farm payrolls will be released (8.30 am EST) and the FX markets will bear the brunt of the data. Consensus for 60K new jobs; last month was a -92K shock to the downside. Resistance at 100.11 with support at 99.27.
S&P 500 An early sell-off in the Futures market was erased as Wall street opened and buyers recouped losses to end the day alongside yesterday’s close. The strong close price will stand until next week with equity markets closed for Good Friday. Resistance at 6644 with support at 6500.
GOLD Following a 4 day rally, sellers stepped in early with a strong sell-off - typical inverse relationship between strong USD and weak gold. However buyers did step in and went on to recoup half of the losses, confirming the recent demand for the safe haven commodity. The uptrend remains intact, although technically the semblance of a double top and bearish engulfing pattern on the charts are bearish. Resistance at $4802 with support at $4544.
BRENT OIL A brief reprieve in the hope of a de-escalation to the middle east war was dismissed today following Trump’s latest threats, and notably having no answer to the straits of Hormuz remaining closed. With no real change in the current situation, it feels that the latest spike is more of a re-pricing in expectation of a prolonged supply shortage. Buyers bounced up off the $100 area adding over $9 with a bullish close going into Good Friday. The $120 mark remains the upside target. Resistance at $109.33 with support at $99.14.
BITCOIN No surprise - sellers were unable to hold onto early gains with price action remaining confined to the established narrow range which has been in place for the past 7 trading days. With neither side able to add to intraday moves, the sideways activity continues. Buyers aim above $68K while sellers look to maintain pressure below $66K. Range trading on shorter time frames continues to play out. Resistance at $68.7K with support at $65.5K
FX Pivot Levels
