Market Highlights
1 - Oil plunges as middle east tensions ease with Brent down 14.1% at $96.47
2 - Gold down to it’s lowest level since November ($4098) before bouncing off 50% fib level
3 - US stocks cautiously cheer for peace. S&P +1.15%, NASDAQ +1.38%
4 - Nikkei big loser -3.25%; DAX +1.2%, IBEX +1.01%
5 - USD safety not a priority today. USDX -0.40%, EUR +0.47%, GBP +0.82%, JPY -0.52%
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX The downtrend accelerated following Trump’s announcement that the US has halted it’s attack on Iran. This unilateral declaration, no confirmation/agreement from Israel, as well as no such declaration from Iran, was enough for the markets to signal a reversal from strong USD into selling mode. As the chart shapes up, bias and trend now point downward. Note the descending trendline which may cap bouts of buying going forward, with the 99.00 mark a potential pivot level. Resistance at 99.95 with support at 98.63.
S&P 500 In keeping with the traditional inverse relationship, Trump’s declaration of ending the war was met with a risk-on attitude which saw US equity markets rallying as the USD was sold off. Today’s green candlestick was not enough to signal a reversal on the daily charts, and the bullish engulfing candlestick lacks conviction, unable to close above Friday’s high. Resistance at 6747 with support at 6480.
GOLD Following a steep early sell-off to start the week, buyers stepped in at a significant technical level. The fib retracement tool measuring the retracement from the 2025 uptrend, saw the 50% level hold at $4100. With Trump’s declaration adding to demand through the US session, buyers went on to erase the majority of early losses. While the downtrend (EMAs down) remains intact on the dailies, the 4-hour has crossed to the upside going into the new Asian session (March 24th). Resistance at $4510 with support at $4095.
BRENT OIL A volatile day saw prices drop over $20 as sellers controlled the activity. Other than Trump’s declaration, the status quo remains the same regarding oil supply risks and shipping routes staying closed. However, as is the oil market, the promise/potential of an end to the oil crises was enough for sellers to set the tone. Prices settled under the pivotal $100 level going into the Asian session (March 24th). Resistance at $113.92 with support at $91.99.
BITCOIN Technically Bitcoin had a strong day with a solid green candlestick confirming demand for the cryptocurrency. The double bottom (bullish signal), and a close above $70K add to the upside feel. Yet, the downtrend remains intact with EMAs still pointing down. Further, price activity remains confined to the relatively narrow/established range between $68K and $72K. Resistance at $71.8K with support at $67.2K.
FX Pivot Levels
