Market Highlights
1 - Iran warns of total destruction of energy infrastructure. Brent up $100 at $110.36
2 - Gold down over $200 at $4814
3 - Bitcoin gives up recent gains, down 3.71% at $71.3K
4 - Indices mixed across the globe. Nikkei +3.0%, US stock markets all lower led by DJ -1.63%, Nasdaq -1.46%; European markets strong, led by IBEX + 2.4%, DAX +2.2%
5 - USD rallies post Fed rate decision where rates kept on hold at 3.75%. USDX +0.76% reaching 100.00, EUR -0.63% losing 90 pips, GBP -0.66 giving up over 100 pips
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX The Fed held rates, as expected, however the hawkish tone was enough to create significant demand for the USD across the board. The index recouped losses from early in the week as buyers look up to retest above the 100.00 mark as the US session draws to a close. Resistance at 100.02 with support at 99.20.
S&P 500 Sellers took control early in futures trading, with a steep push lower following the Fed’s rate decision (held rates at 3.75%) during the late US session. The sure steady downtrend which has been in place since the start of the year continues to establish a series of lower highs on the daily chart. Note sellers have been held up at current support area since the start of the month. The 6800 level shapes up as a pivotal number, having established itself as a relevant resistance and support level. Resistance at 6814 with support at 6676.
GOLD A statement day for the metal saw sellers start the sell-off early in the Asian session, before a steep push lower following the FOMC decision. The Fed held rates, with the markets reaction clearly bullish on the side of the USD. The traditional inverse relationship played out - USD up, gold down. Significant levels were broken on the downside: after falling below $5000, the next target of $4900 was next to go with $4800 now being eyed as the US session comes to a close. As the downtrend gains momentum, buyers remain on the sidelines with “value pricing” and “safe-haven status” not entering the equation, for now. Resistance at $5019 with support $4814.
BRENT OIL As the middle east war continues into a 3rd week, the precarious oil situation shows no signs of easing with Iran controlling the straits, keeping the shipping routes closed. With no clear-cut plans re. an agreement/settlement coming out of either side, the indecision and uncertainty adds fear and risk = prices continue to rise. As expected, technical levels fall by the wayside with real supply/demand factors driving price activity. (The high from March 9th sits at $119.41). Resistance at $111.73 with support at $100.40.
BITCOIN Sellers controlled the activity from the start, and never gave up the strong push lower with prices settling back at the familiar low $70K area. Technically note the first upside test following the fib retracement from $97.9 down to $60K, was held up first time of asking at the 38.2% level ($74.4K - today’s high). While buyers aim to regain above $75K, lack of demand for the cryptocurrency will see sellers looking below the $70K mark. Another confirmation that BTC is not viewed as a safe-haven asset? Resistance at $74.7K with support at $70.7K.
FX Pivot Levels
