Market Highlights
1 - US stock markets disregard geopolitical risks with strong gains, led by NASDAQ +1.29%
2 - European indices close higher, led by IBEX +2.33% and DAX +1.58%
3 - Gold up $32 at $5141; Brent oil gains slightly, up $0.83 at $82.55
4 - USD down across the board as risk-on theme today; USDX -0.56%, -0.41% against the JPY, -0.28% vs CHF, 0.28% vs CAD
5 - Bitcoin the big gainer on a day of improved risk tone, up $4.2K at $72.5K
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX A turnaround in financial markets today with the USD being sold off across the board as investors went “risk-on” today, in spite of the middle east war continuing on all fronts. It’s interesting that the geopolitical fundamentals gave no reason or insight into the technical reversal. However, note the bounce down came off the same level as we saw January 16th when the uptrend was sharply reversed - semblance of a double-top candlestick pattern (reversal sign). Resistance at 99.32 with support at 98.33.
S&P 500 Buyers recouped yesterday’s losses and went on to rally through the day. The traditional inverse relationship between weak USD and strong equities playing out, in line with the risk-on theme which surrounded the markets today. Buyers will target 6900 on the upside in order to initiate a new uptrend. Sellers continue to struggle below 6800, the level being guarded by buyers. Resistance at 6894 with support at 6771.
GOLD Buyers were not able to hang on to early gains, although doing enough to halt yesterday’s sell-off and close the day with slight gains. Technically the $5100 support held strong, perhaps aided by a weak USD. Fundamentally, the upside seems the preferred direction with the war showing no signs of letting up and clearly gold has not lost it’s safe haven status. Resistance at $5208 with support at $5101.
BRENT OIL No new developments fundamentally, and the stalemate is reflected on the charts with a slight push higher, yet no real change. All factors remain tilted to the upside with supply concerns continuing into the 5th day of the conflict. Oil and energy uncertainty play into the volatile nature of the oil market, prices reacting to every new development. Although prices did take a pause yesterday and today, sharp rallies like we saw at the start of the conflict could be re-ignited quickly with so many players /countries involved. Resistance at $84.36 with support at $80.31.
BITCOIN Finally, a long-awaited break…to the upside saw BTC break above the $70K level and maintaining demand through to the end of the day. Should the rally gain momentum, buyers may be quick to recognize the upside potential. At this point the breakout and uptrend appear to be technically motivated, perhaps new fundamentals will enter the picture and add credibility to an undervalued safe asset? Sellers will look down below the $70K level. Resistance art $74.1K with support at $67.3K.
FX Pivot Levels
