Market Highlights
1 - S&P +0.08% and NASDAQ +0.37% erase war declines and close higher
2 - European indices take heavy losses to close lower. DAX -2.4%, FTSE -1.2%, IBEX -2.6%
3 - Gold loses $50 closing lower at $5337; Bitcoin up $3.6K to close at $69.3K
4 - Brent oil gains $0.93 to close $79.16 on the day after gapping up $5 at the open
5 - USDX confirms USD’s global reserve currency status, +0.95% at 98.50. EUR down 55pips at 1.1688, CHF gives up 91 pips at 0.7790, JPY loses 74 pips at 157.37
Daily Price Activity
Insights
USD INDEX The USD confirmed it’s status as the global safety asset of choice within the financial world. Following the onset of the middle east war over the weekend, there was an immediate flight to safety as the USD gapped higher to start the new trading week, and went on to gain through the Asian and European sessions. Noticeably demand waned through the US session with a slight retracement as the day wore on. Note the descending trendline from November 2025 was broken to the upside. Resistance at 98.72 with support at 97.72.
S&P 500 The initial gap lower and sell-off to start the week was the first response to the middle east war. However, buyers stepped in during the European session and losses were recouped through the US session with a close alongside Friday’s close, once again hovering close to the comfortable 6900 mark. Buyers will aim to test the top of the symmetrical triangle (7000) while sellers look to retest the bottom of the triangle (6900) on the downside. Resistance at 6910 with support at 6768.
GOLD The immediate reaction to the outbreak of war over the weekend saw a gap higher to start the week, confirming the metal’s safe-haven status with a $100+ gap up at the Asian open. However, sellers stepped in and a volatile US session saw sharp moves in both directions before settling at $5333 reflecting a $60 gain following Friday’s close. Trend, sentiment and fundamentals continue to favour the upside. Resistance at $5428 with support at $5253.
BRENT OIL As expected, oil gapped up sharply to start the week, with the commodity testing both higher and lower before settling at the day’s opening, reflected in a doji-like candlestick to record the day’s activity. Note the price did spike almost $10 from Friday’s open $70.58 to reach a high of $80.24 early in the European session. Fundamentals will dictate future moves with Iran’s position as a major oil producer, as well as heavily influencing the travel route (Straits of Hormuz) - both factors which will clearly have an impact on potential supply concerns. Several gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Quatar, Bahrain, Oman and UAE have all been drawn into the conflict and will be influence supply issues. Resistance at $80 24 with support at $75.80
BITCOIN A strong day for the cryptocurrency, rallying $4.8K, confirming an uptrend, and clearly breaking above the month long descending trendline. While technically the bias is tilted to the upside, the bigger picture continues to reflect a sideways range between $65K and $70K, still clearly intact. It remains to be seen what effect the middle east war will have on BTC. Track records show us that investors have not turned to the cryptocurrency as a safe-haven status in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, let alone the cris situation of a war across a wide region such as the middle east. Resistance at $70.3K with support at $65.5K
FX Pivot Levels
