USD INDEX
Notwithstanding USDX sellers controlling the European and US sessions, buyers did enough to close up on the day. Interesting that Friday’s weak job numbers did not break the USD’s uptrend. High yields, a relatively hawkish Fed, Euro weakness and safe-haven demand outweigh weak employment data, for now. The 102.00 level is shaping up to be a relevant psychological/support area. Resistance at 102.59 with support at 101.63.
S&P 500
The index had a strong session with the market optimistic looking ahead to Q3 earnings. It appears investors are willing to accept high interest rates if corporate profits continue to grow. Also, September’s weak jobs report has drastically reduced expectations of a rate hike this month. Noteworthy that although the 10yr yields rose, equities still rallied. Technically 7800 is now the psychological resistance area, while the previous record high (7750 -7780) becomes relevant support if the market pulls back. Resistance at 7846 with support at 7759.
GOLD
The metal had a mixed, but relatively resilient session today. The doji-like daily candlestick confirms the current lack of direction. The initial rally based on Friday’s weak job report and reduced Fed hike expectations for October, was capped by a strong USD and higher yields. $4100 looks to be the important short-term support with $4200 being the target for buyers to break above.
BRENT OIL
Brent closed lower today, but not a bearish trend reversal yet. Bearish factors: more middle-east oil is reaching the market with G7 and OPEC+ supportive. Bullish factors remain the fragile US/Iran geopolitical risks with attacks on shipping continuing. The key level remains $100. Above $100 the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded; below $100 could encourage a deeper correction towards $90. Resistance at $103.13 with support at $99.75.
BITCOIN
BTC sold off from its early high, although sellers were unable to maintain the move lower. The 0.7% decline looks like a technical rejection of the $87K resistance rather than a reversal, with profit taking after Friday’s rally contributing. Perhaps the cryptocurrency needs help?yields to soften, a weaker dollar, and/or stronger ETF flows to break the $87K mark and establish a new leg higher. Resistance at $87K with support at $84.8K.
