USD INDEX
The uptrend came to an abrupt end and reversed sharply. Risk-on and the safe haven USD was sold off as the hope of a settlement, or de-escalation at least, in the middle east war sparked a new positive tone across financial markets. Declining oil prices added to the turnaround. Sellers broke below the 100.00 mark with 99.00 the next downside target. Although today’s move was enough to signal a reversal (EMAs crossed down), the precarious situation is still susceptible to sharp moves in either direction. Resistance at 100.49 with support at 99.51.
S&P 500
The market’s response to Iran’s announcement re. willingness to reach a peace settlement saw equity markets rally and reverse the long-standing downtrend. The safe haven USD sold off and investors bought stocks - text book risk-on currency move. After weeks of selling, stocks were described as “oversold” which added to the strong rally. Last day of Q1/ rebalancing also contributed. Note the double bottom and engulfing nature of today’s candlestick confirming the reversal. Resistance at 6585 with support at 6351.
GOLD
The safe haven commodity welcomed a USD sell-off, US yields moving lower, plus the metal being seen as a macro hedge in response to potential rate cuts or perhaps oil spiking again and inflation worries returning. Technically today was the 3rd consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows on the chart. A new round of demand may well see buyers looking up to retake the relevant $5000 mark. Resistance at $4707 with support at $4483.
BRENT OIL
With talk of an end to the Iran/US war, the oil market reacted as expected - prices dropped as sellers controlled the activity. As is the case regarding oil prices, the expectation of a new development, or potential change from current conditions, triggers a move without a real, or fundamental change actually materializing. While the price did drop over $8, the market does appear wary and nervous. The sell-off stopped short of testing the $100 mark. Notwithstanding today’s relief selling, oil volatility remains. Resistance at $110.12 with support at $102.84.
BITCOIN
The range remains in place for the 5th consecutive day, basically sitting comfortably between $65.5K and $68.5K. Buyers won out today, with a 2nd consecutive green/up day on the charts. While the dailies show no clear trend in either direction, shorter time frames (hourly and 4 hour) do offer range trading opportunities as long as the current resistance and support levels hold. Resistance at $68.5 K with support at $65.7K.
