USD INDEX
The USD rally continued early through the Asian and European session, before sellers stepped in with a measured sell-off through the US session, giving up roughly half of the early gains. This is the first pause/retracement since the outbreak of war 4 days ago. Trend remains up, with perhaps sentiment being questioned as the index settled at 99.00, 50 pts up on yesterday’s 98.50 close. However, the USD remains the safe haven asset as the middle east conflict continues. Resistance at 99.66 with support at 98.38.
S&P 500
A strong recovery was not enough to erase all the losses, although it is noteworthy that the bounce recouped a large portion of the early sell-off which took place in futures trading and through the Asian and European sessions. The recovery came during the US session after Wall street opened. Resistance at 6881 with support at 6719.
GOLD
An extreme sell-off saw the metal give up $250 on the day, with losses as steep as $350 before buyers stepped in late during the US session. While the commodity’s safe haven status cannot disappear in a day, particularly with a war raging throughout the middle east, it appears today’s activity was in large part due to profit taking after gold’s historic rally which has been in place for over a year. The follow up will determine whether buyers once again see declines as a new buying opportunity, or will demand dry up for now? Note buyers guarded the $5000 level. Note today’s close matched the higher low at $5084 from (February 24th). Resistance at $5382 with support at $4994.
BRENT OIL
A 3rd successive day of sharp rallies saw Brent gain almost $7 as uncertainty continues to reign in the oil market. A late reversal/sell-off late in the day after Trump “ assured he will protect the straits of Hormuz” and “insure the delivery of oil to the world, literally via insurance guarantees”. The very nature of the price volatility based on promises and political positioning leaves the market fragile and susceptible to extreme swings in both directions. Resistance at $85.18 with support at $78.35.
BITCOIN
Of all the major financial assets, BTC remains the sole asset apparently unaffected by the global conflict. Sellers remain on the sidelines with limited demand for the cryptocurrency resulting in price activity remaining contained within the narrow, established $5K range between $65K and $70K. Yesterday’s gains, coupled with today’s late bounce may tilt the bias to the upside, slightly. Resistance at $69.2K with support at $66.2K.
